Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog looks to keep things rolling this weekend as it faces incoming competition from 20th Century’s The Call of the Wild and STX’s Brahms: The Boy II. Sonic will have no trouble holding on to the top spot following its strong start last weekend as it looks to top $110 million after just ten days in release.
Following a massive start last weekend, accompanied by solid critical reviews and audience response, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog is looking at a another weekend atop the box office. We’re anticipating a dip around -48% or so for a $30 millilon three-day. Should that forecast hold look for the film to top $110 million by the end of the weekend, on its way to becoming the third highest grossing video game adaptation domestically after just ten days in release.
In the runner-up position we find the first of the weekend’s two new wide releases in 20th Century’s The Call of the Wild, featuring Harrison Ford in the adaptation of Jack London’s classic novel, which is set to debut in over 3,700 locations. Tracking suggests a performance in the mid-teens and that lines up well with what we’ve been seeing based on IMDb page view performance over the two weeks leading up to release.
A look at IMDb page view performance shows Call of the Wild outpacing films such as A Dog’s Journey, A Dog’s Way Home, Peter Rabbit and Dolphin Tale 2 leading up to release. It’s also pacing similarly to Paddington 2 while pacing just behind Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. What this tells us is to look for a performance in the mid-to-high teens with the potential for a $20+ million debut, especially if audiences agree with critics, which have given the film a 66% rating on RottenTomatoes.
Flying into third is WB’s Birds of Prey, which performed as expected last weekend and this weekend we’re anticipating a dip around -48% for a three-day around $9 million pushing the film’s domestic gross over $74 million as it enters its third week in release.
Behind it, Sony’s Bad Boys for Life is looking for another $7 million or so this weekend and a domestic cume topping $190 million by the end of the weekend while Universal’s 1917 is adding 637 locations, expanding back into over 2,700 locations. We’re looking for that film to dip around -19% and round out the top five with $6.5 million as its domestic cume tops $150 million this weekend.
Just outside the top five is where we come to the week’s other new wide release in STX’s Brahms: The Boy II, which will launch in over 2,100 locations with tracking anticipating a performance anywhere from $6-7 million for the $10 million production. The film is a sequel to the 2016 film, which launched with over $10 million en route to a $35.8 million domestic run and nearly $75 million worldwide haul. The sequel, however, isn’t looking to hit such heights.
A look at IMDb page view data shows the film pacing well behind not only the original film, but most every film we put it up against including Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension ($8m opening) while it’s pacing behind The Last Exorcism Part II ($7.7m opening). As a result, we’re having a hard time going any higher than $6 million, which actually feels like a ceiling, as interest in this one seems particularly low and the lack of reviews one day before release suggests word of mouth isn’t something STX is counting on pushing the film’s performance throughout the weekend.
In limited release this weekend, Lionsgate will debut Pantelion’s Las Pildoras De Mi Novio in 350 locations, truTV will release Impractical Jokers: The Movie into 357 locations and Focus launches the latest Jane Austen adaptation, Emma., in five theaters.
This weekend’s forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Sonic the Hedgehog (4,198 theaters) – $30.0 M
- The Call of the Wild (3,752 theaters) – $17.5 M
- Birds of Prey: And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn (3,565 theaters) – $9.0 M
- Bad Boys for Life (2,972 theaters) – $7.0 M
- 1917 (2,721 theaters) – $6.5 M
- The Photograph (2,516 theaters) – $6.2 M
- Brahms: The Boy II (2,151 theaters) – $6.0 M
- Fantasy Island (2,784 theaters) – $5.3 M
- Jumanji: The Next Level (2,126 theaters) – $4.4 M
- Parasite (1,803 theaters) – $4.0 M
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Article by Brad Brevet